Poker Pro: Hold’em Small Pairs In Early Seats

Mike Caro plays online poker at DoylesRoom.com

As you may know, I teach that it’s usually wrong to call the big blind early with small pairs, such as 2-2, 3-3, and 4-4. Many things work against these hold ’em hands, such as (1) you can make three of a kind and lose to a larger three-of-a-kind, (2) if you get lucky enough that your pair might matter, a bigger pair (or bigger two-pair when there’s a major pair on board and your second pair isn’t large enough) might beat you, and (3) two bigger pairs might show up on the board, leaving you with essentially no hand at all.

But if this argument — and the simulation of millions of hands which I’ve done by computer — doesn’t convince you, here’s some more bad news: You usually can afford to call a single raise after you call the blind with a small pair, but not a double raise. So, if you call, and there’s a raise, and then there’s a re-raise, you should usually fold. But in folding, you’re surrendering a first bet without any shot at the pot whatsoever.

When I talk to people who are trying to analyze whether these small pairs are profitable in an early position, they seldom mention the fact that you might have to throw the hand away without seeing the flop. So, even if you can argue that the small pair is a close decision without the forced-to-fold factor, it is not a close decision when that factor is correctly considered. Once again: Seldom play small pairs from an early position, unless you’re in a very loose game with very timid opponents who don’t raise aggressively AND you can outplay those opponents on later betting rounds.

 

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Poker Tip: When Losing at Poker

Poker tips and advice from professional playersHere’s Mike Caro’s latest poker tip: Don’t Be Aggressive When You’re Losing

You don’t have the same intimidation factor over your opponents when you’re losing as you do when you’re winning. For that reason, you’ll make more money, or lose less, if you ride out your losing streak by reverting to a conservative game plan.

When the cards bring you out of it, your opponents will be intimidated again and you’ll be able to manipulate them with faster action and fancier plays. Remember, you shouldn’t be superstitious or believe that the cards will continue to be hot or cold. But that’s what many of your opponents think. So, take advantage of it by being more aggressive when you’re winning and less aggressive when you’re losing and opponents are inspired and less likely to play poorly.

Mike Caro

 

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Pro Poker Tips: Ego Damage

Here’s an item by By “America’s Mad Genius of Poker” Mike Caro

ego is a major bankroll hog!Years ago I stopped bragging about my poker skills. Well, maybe I didn’t stop, but I slowed down a bit. I’m 51 now, but when I was lots younger it just drove me nuts if anyone thought they were a better player than I was. I knew, deep down, I mean really deep down, that it couldn’t possibly be true. I understood in my heart that given enough time, nobody could beat me, provided our bankrolls were theoretically unlimited.

Having this conviction, and being so young, it hurt my ego if anyone even suggested that they might be able to outplay me. I was ever ready to risk my entire bankroll on a heads-up match, anytime, anywhere. It wasn’t a matter of winning the money. The opponent needed to be punished for merely suggesting that he might have a shot against Mike Caro. While I won most of these ego matches, I didn’t win all of them, and I ended up dead broke more than a few times, having to recover bit by bit in smaller games, building back my bankroll.

A contest. Hell, it got so silly I started a 25-words-or-less contest circulating around Gardena, California (then known as the Poker Capital of the World). The entry form said, “Mike Caro is the greatest poker player in the world, because…” and contestants could fill in the rest. Yes, I gave away real money!

One day while I was nearly broke and rebuilding my bankroll in smaller games, a guy challenged me to a $10,000 freeze out heads-up match I couldn’t afford. I wasn’t going to back down and relinquish my pride, though.

“You couldn’t even afford the stakes I want to play for,” I told him.

“What you wanna play for?”

“Let’s just sit down with 500 chips each and play till someone has ’em all,” I suggested.

“For how much?”

“The chips are free,” I told him.

“That don’t make sense,” he responded, shaking his head. “You can’t play poker with nothin’ at stake.”

“I didn’t say nothing’s at stake. I said the chips are free. What if the loser kills himself?”

Then we just stood there, in the middle of the card floor, poker tables surrounding us. He tried to figure out whether I was serious. I would not break our gazes. I did not blink. He would not break our gazes. He did not blink. So we wouldn’t break our gazes, and we didn’t blink until a very subtle and skewed smile appeared on his face.

“You’re kiddin’ me?” he said, more as a hopeful statement of fact than as a question.

Not kidding. I just shook my head slowly and proudly. No, I’m not kidding, this conveyed. I don’t know if I would have played this match, but I felt brave right then. Additionally, I felt invincible. I had images in my head of beating him and then just saying, “Hey, you don’t have to pay this off. You owe me one. Go have a nice life.” Something like that.

I was sort of nuts back then. I would have played anyone for anything. And I really thought I could prove at the poker table in a short period of time that I was the best in the world, especially one-on-one.

That day, we finally just walked away from each other and sat in normal games. His was, unfortunately, a bigger limit than I was prepared to play, so we didn’t compete against each other. But I felt satisfied that I’d made him surrender, that I had been willing to play for stakes he couldn’t afford. Yes, he had challenged me to a match beyond my bankroll. But I had made him back down. And I was proud.

More matches. That was actually the incident that started me challenging other players to “suicide matches” anytime I got my feathers ruffled, anytime someone would question my skills or my nerve. Nobody ever accepted, of course, and most players took my challenges only half seriously. But at times I was sure that if someone ever did call my pot, if someone did accept my dare, that I’d go through with it. At other times, I wavered.

In any case, my youthful bravado, my quest for a suicide match ended abruptly when one particularly mean-looking guy from out of town listened to my challenge and said, “Kid, you wanna play serious, let’s play.” He calmly unzipped his fly and gestured for me to follow suit. Then he took a pocket knife out, unfolded it and flung it on the table. Then he motioned for me to sit down, saying simply, “Deal.” Well, the symbolism was hard to miss.

I finally began to laugh, and so did everyone else. Well, almost everyone. The guy wasn’t laughing. So, I said, “Sorry, I don’t have that kind of bankroll.” A man needs to learn when not to call a raise. I think that was the beginning of my mellowing out.

Today, I realize you can’t prove who’s really the best poker player in the world, because all the best players are too evenly matched, and it might take years for one player to come out clearly on top. I still believe, privately, that I can beat anyone – especially heads-up. But others feel the same way, and we’ll never be able to settle the argument. Except for a night, maybe. Or a few glorious days. But the victory doesn’t usually last.

And that’s the truth about poker, my friends. Egos often get in the way. Nobody will ever prove who’s best. And eventually you grow wise and you live with the greatest poker lesson of all time:

You win some, you lose some, and you keep it to yourself.

– MC

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Poker Tips: On the Quick Bluff and Bunched Aces

Here’s a couple of quick poker tips from top professional poker player, Mike Caro.

Mike Caro plays online poker at DoylesRoom.com poker roomA Quick Bluff Is More Likely To Succeed Than A Hesitant One
Of course, there are exceptions, but on average…

If you bluff fairly quickly — without pondering — you’ll succeed in stealing the pot more often than if you hesitate and seem unsure. I was able to further support this theory by programming my artificially intelligent Orac poker player in 1984. I learned while testing that opponents were much more likely to fold against fast bets than against pondered ones — even against a computer!

Mike Caro plays online poker at DoylesRoom.com poker roomBeware Of Bunched Aces In Hold’em

I call this the “bunching factor.” It has nothing to do with poor dealing, though.

If you’re playing 10-handed hold ’em and the first seven players have folded before the flop, there’s a better-than-usual chance that the few remaining players hold aces. Why? It’s because when opponents fold, it’s more likely that they folded something other than aces.

This means that statistically there are more aces left that could appear in the few remaining hands. While this isn’t an overwhelming statistical factor, it is significant enough that you should be more selective about the hands you raise the blinds with from the button (dealer position) when everyone else has folded than you would be if the deal began three-handed!

This “bunching factor” applies to other games, too — especially draw poker.

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Most Important Thing In Poker? The Law of Least Tilt

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Caro’s Law of Least Tilt.

“In a poker game among eight equally matched world-class players, what very powerful law dictates who will eventually win and who will lose? ” You’re thinking, “Who cares? How often am I in a poker game made up of eight equally matched world-class players?”

Ah, but this principle has a much broader importance. It ranks among the most powerful laws in the gambling universe. Great poker pros are governed by it. So are Henry, Jack and Felix at your Friday night game. So are blackjack players and golfers, craps shooters and backgammon superstars.

THE BLACK HOLE
I’m talking about The Power, baby. It’s a black hole in the poker table that can suck up all your chips and send you home whimpering. I’m talking about a merciless, ubiquitous, universal law that will never leave you alone until you honor it.

I’m talking about Caro’s Law of Least Tilt. Exactly What is Tilt, Anyway? You might not know the meaning of the phrase “going on tilt.” Turning to the Random House Dictionary of the English Language (unabridged), we find on page 606 that “going on tilt” is not defined.

A pity. But checking a more credible source, Doyle Brunson’s Super/System – A Course in Power Poker, we see that the term “on tilt” is defined on page 539. Quote: “When a player starts playing bad (loses his composure), usually after losing one or more big pots, he’s said to be on tilt.”

There are other slang ways to express this phenomenon. Vegas regulars call it “steaming.” In my favorite Denver game, we used to say a man had “flipped a pancake.”

IT HAPPENS TO PLAYERS & PINBALL MACHINES
Going on tilt describes it best. What happens to a pinball machine when you shake it too hard? The lights go out, its normal mechanical functions are short-circuited, it stops playing its normal game, and suddenly the word Tilt flashes on its scoreboard.

Isn’t that what happens to a poker player when you shake him too hard? Most players can take their bad beats graciously for a while; but when they suffer one blow too many, something usually snaps. Their lights go out, their brains malfunction, they cease to play their best game and, if you look really close, you can see the word “Tilt” etched on their foreheads.

Suddenly the most dedicated scientific poker players are babbling and bluffing and barging into pots with inferior hands. You’ve seen it happen, and it’s a pitiful sight to behold.

THE LAW DEFINED
Write this law on a piece of paper, tape it to the wall and study it. Caro’s Law of Least Tilt: Among similarly skilled opponents, the player with the most discipline is the favorite.

Gee, that seems too obvious to bother saying. Obvious, hell! Ask around and see what the best poker players think is most important. Their opinions will vary. To save you the trouble, I actually surveyed ten tough players. My question was: “In a poker game among players whose ability is about equal, what do you think is the most important winning edge?”

Using a little judgment, I placed their answers into the following categories-
Knowledge of mathematics: 4
Psychological skill: 3
Knowing when to quit: 2
Alertness: 1

Had I undertaken a larger survey, other things would have appeared. But the point is made by this small sample. Incredibly, nobody mentioned the Law of Least Tilt! Everything listed is important.

KNOWLEDGE OF MATHEMATICS
A very weak player who knows nothing about probabilities or mathematics will be at the mercy of a knowledgeable opponent. However, a player with an outstanding grasp of odds and statistics is only a small favorite over a player with a pretty good understanding.

Of course, in some poker games even a small difference in mathematical ability can be critical. Seven-card high-low split is such a game.

PSYCHOLGICAL SKILL
Very important. But, in a game involving contestants of equal overall talent, is it likely that there will be much difference here? No.

KNOWING WHEN TO QUIT
For a bunch of reasons which I don’t want to discuss now, it’s better to quit when you’re losing than when you’re winning. Most players get this backwards and play longer when they’re losing. Anyway, seldom does one player secure an important edge over his peers by quitting at the correct times.

ALERTNESS
You’ll seldom find a game among equally skilled foes where one is substantially more alert than his opponents.

TILT BY MUTUAL AGREEMENT
Tour the card rooms of Las Vegas, the poker parlors of California, the private games in Texas. Try legal seven-stud in Washington and Oregon. Play Hold ’em in Montana.

Yep, poker’s booming everywhere. Look for the toughest, meanest game in the area. Ask around, you’ll find it. It’s usually a medium or high-stakes contest and it’s often comprised of the same regular players night after night. Sometimes there’s a stranger to throw off some money; but usually it’s survival of the fittest – hometown heroes battling for regional honors.

I’m talking about a poker game where players of approximately the same expectations wage a war of egos. Listen to me, you seven-card stud superstars – I’m talking to you!

Almost every ego contest I’ve witnessed has an unspoken rule that goes like this: Weak players are timid and we’re not weak, so let’s bet our hands like crazy. Nobody will get hurt if everyone does it.

There’s more to this tacit understanding. Any player who suffers two bad beats in a row is expected to play more recklessly than usual.

Oh, I almost forgot, there’s another part. If a stranger gets in the game and tries to take advantage of our generous bets and raises, we’ll play conservatively.

This last part is consistently violated. Take these poker pros and near-pros aside and ask what they’d do if a solid, talented player from Milwaukee sat in their game.

“We don’t give action unless we get action.” Snail slime!

The sad thing is, these guys really believe this! Gosh, you take your skilled sever-stud prayer from Topeka and put him in the $30 and $60 limit seven-stud game at the Sahara and . well, I like his chances.

EGO, EGO RAISE ‘EM UP!
The talent in this game is awesome. Gathered here at the Sahara is some of the keenest seven-stud talent that ever sprouted West of the Rockies. But, yes, they do play too recklessly and when they lose too many pots and get on tilt they play really recklessly.

Naturally, you’d expect this to stop when Fred from Sacramento sits in the game. You guys remember Fred, don’t you? Following my instructions he won $3210 in one session. You probably don’t remember, since that isn’t a milestone win. And, of course, you don’t remember Charlie since he won only $1530.

These players were sent in the game as an experiment; and they both reported the same thing. The regular players did not lighten up on their raises. Instead, they made these new players a target and tried to intimidate them with a barrage of irrational raises.

Following my advice, both Fred and Charlie called timidly for the first several pots, letting the aggressors establish an image. Then they counter attacked for three consecutive hands. They’d been instructed to get the last bet in at every opportunity (within reason) no matter what cards they held. Although Charlie managed to lose all three pots, Fred won two of his, once making an inside straight down the river against queens-up.

CONTROLLED TILT – THE CRUELEST WEAPON
According to plan, Fred and Charlie never got out of line after that. They had established an early reckless image. The image stuck, even though they played solid poker from then on. The regular players felt confident that the tacit loose-play agreement was not in jeopardy. No one, they reasoned, was taking advantage.

Although these two sessions are not significant enough to prove the point, let’s make believe they are. What the hell, we’re talking about more than 400 hands, and only a statistician would demand a larger sample.

What it proves is this: In a game where everyone goes on tilt some of the time, the player who spends the fewest minutes on tilt wins the most money.

(Since some tilt plays are horrible and others are merely bad, you could argue that it isn’t the time of tilt, but the quality of tilt that determines the winners. It’s really both.)

Controlled Tilt is simply doing the things that a player on tilt does, while being motivated rationally rather than emotionally. The strategy is to appear totally berserk while remaining thoroughly in command. This is the cruelest, most profitable tactic I know.

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Randomize Your Poker Play Against Sharks

Mike Caro play poker with him online at Doyles Room Poker siteAgainst very weak opponents, it’s usually not necessary to randomize your decisions. You don’t need to be very deceptive, because a straightforward strategy will usually earn the most money. But against more experienced players it’s a good idea to mix it up, as long as you don’t sacrifice too much in the process.

But how do you randomize? There are many ways to do this, some simple, some elaborate. One very easy way is to decide to choose the standard play for close decisions (such as mostly calling, but sometimes raising) three-quarters (75 percent) of the time and the exception one-quarter (25 percent) of the time. For situations in which a three-to-one ratio of standard play to exception seems reasonable to you, you can simply consider the suit of the FIRST card dealt to you. If it’s a spade, choose the exception and raise (for the sake of this example). If it’s any other suit, go with the standard play and just call.

As an extra precaution against the unlikely event that an opponent will catch on, you might change the exception suit from time to time. You could change it each session or even each hour.

Mike Caro

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Texas Hold’em Poker: Chasing A Flush With A Pair On Board

Mike Caro professional poker player and coachWhen you begin with two suited cards and flop two more — meaning you need to catch one more of that suit on the 4th (turn) or 5th (river) cards, it’s often correct to continue to pursue the pot. So, if you start with Kh-Jh in a fixed-limit game and the flop is 7-A-4, you probably should call (and sometimes even bet, partially for deceptive purposes).

But if there’s a pair on that flop, such as 10-10-7, you should often fold. Why? It’s because the flush attempt is usually only marginally profitably (on average) without the pair present. The increased chances of you making a flush only to have it beat by a full house when a pair is present often makes the pursuit unprofitable.

That’s why, if you think the pursuit of the flush would only show a small profit without the pair, you should almost always fold with the pair present. Rare exceptions might involve times when you can use the presence of the pair to bluff or to posture.

 

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The Terrible Truth About Deuces In Hold ’em

Mike Caro - chat and play poker with him online at DoylesRoom.comHere’s a quick tip from top poker author and professional, Mike Caro.

Even if you play all the way to a showdown in hold ’em, if you start with a pair of deuces, the odds against you catching at least one more deuce among the five board cards are 4.2 to 1. You’ll only succeed 19 percent of the time.

When you consider that you’re unlikely to win without seeing a third deuce, that you might lose — often at some expense — even when you do see one, and that it will probably cost you considerably more money to get to that last river card, you can understand why a pair of deuces is usually unprofitable to play in hold ’emDeuces in poker.

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Poker Pro: Raising With Small Pairs

Mike Caro plays online poker at DoylesRoom.comAlthough you can often call profitably with a small pair against a long line of players in hold ’em, when you’re in late position and no one has entered the pot, it’s different. Then, you should usually raise, not just call.

The reason is that against many players, you’re trying to take advantage of pot odds by calling and seeing the flop. You realize that you’ll almost certainly need to improve your hand to win against that many opponents.

But when you’re in late position, you can raise hoping to end up one-on-one or to win the blinds outright. If you do end up against just one opponent, there’s a good chance your small pair might be enough win the pot, affording you an extra chance to win that you would seldom enjoy against many opponents.

The raise is designed to chase players out and give yourself that extra chance to win.

Mike Caro

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Most poker players, even good ones, lose more than they should

Mike Caro plays online at Doyles Room poker

Most players, even serious ones, suffer much greater poker losses than they should. One reason is that their losses are “reversed manufactured.” (Reverse manufactured just means that those losses are the necessary byproduct of trying to manufacture a winning streak).

Oh, fine, but what does “manufacture a winning streak” mean. How can you manufacture a win? It’s amazingly easy. All you have to do is refuse to settle for a loss and accept small wins whenever you need to. The only requirement is that you fight back when you’re behind, hoping to break into the plus column, then quit happy if you succeed, rejoicing in the notion that you overcame adversity, struggled to restack your chips, and are now going home to rest victorious. It will feel like a proud accomplishment to you, but it shouldn’t.

How you won

Let’s look at how it might have just happened. You’re a medium-limit player, not competing quite large enough to make a good living, but large enough to supplement your income or to barely get by without a job when required. In this way, you’re like the majority of winning poker players – somewhere between just eking out a profit and professional wage-earner status.

Anyway, today you sit down in a $10/$20 hold ’em game, supposedly hoping to make a profit by showing off your Sunday-best poker skills. Sad stuff happens right away, though. Down goes a king-high heart flush, which you flopped, when a player holding the ace of hearts and deuce of diamonds sees a fourth heart come on the river. Next you flop three jacks, but they finish third when two opponents hit straights. Then there’s that devastating hand where you got bluffed out of your birdcage by Bruno, who never, ever did that before. And it gets worse. The little medium hands that can go either North or South, all go South. Losses pile up. Misery surrounds you.

But somewhere deep, deep inside, you maintain your faith and conviction, and the spirit strikes you. You fight back. Hours pass. You grow weary. Hours pass. You fight to stay alert and wait for your luck to change. Hours pass.

It’s now 3:40 in the morning and you need to be up at 8:30. Suddenly several pots are pushed to you. Then a small setback. Then you win more pots. After a string of pots go your way, you win a really big one. Is your recovery complete? You don’t know, because you haven’t had time to count your chips.

“Deal me out one hand,” you tell the table. You need to stack these newly won chips, count them, find out where you stand. Down $135, put 10 of these $5 chips here, down $85 now, put these two $25 chips off to the side, down $35, oops, three more $5 chips under a $20 bill, exactly even, and that leaves these three $1 chips, change from the rake, so up $3! You did it! Your winning streak continues!

Time to go

“Deal me out!” you announce. “It’s getting later than I thought.”  “Don’t you wanna play till your blind?” someone asks. “You’ve got another hand coming.” You’re tempted, after all, you can just fold everything except aces – even aces if you really want to. But you just wave away the suggestion. “Nah, deal around me.” And within minutes you’re cashed out and on your way home. As you’re leaving, a friend asks you how you did tonight. Your chest puffs out proudly and you say, “I won a tiny bit. Nothing that matters, but that’s 19 winning days in a row.”

Signs of trouble, my friends. Bad signs of trouble. You’re manufacturing that win streak just so you can make yourself feel good about it. But you’re not manufacturing profit. Sure, you think you’re making profit, but really you’re putting your bankroll at risk. You have tallied a lot of wins – a couple when you got off to a fast start and kept on winning, a few short ones when you started fast, but faltered and quit before you found yourself in the negative column, some where you’d come from behind and quit when you got ahead. And, of course, tonight when you’d stuck it out and turned a major loss into a tiny win.

Speaking of tiny wins, that’s exactly the kind you’re likely to have when you strive to extend a winning streak. That’s simply because you’re willing to settle for them. You’ll quit with small wins when you’ve been winning more to keep from dropping below break even. And you’ll gladly cash out with a small win if you’ve been losing and get ahead. However, there is no such thing as a small loss. You won’t accept one. It’s either a win or a big loss. You need to keep that winning streak alive if you can, right?

The wrong time to play

But, all together, this strategy means you’re playing more hours than you should when you were losing, because you’re trying to catch up. And it means you’re playing fewer hours when you’re winning, because you’re eager to cash out and add to your win streak. By manufacturing a win streak, by forcing small wins, you’re also putting yourself in grave danger of manufacturing huge losses – you simply won’t experience them as long as your luck holds and your winning streak is extended.

You see, when you try hard as you can to dig yourself out, you risk digging yourself deeper. It’s like that popular advice, “When you find yourself in a hole, stop digging.” I think those words were tailored for poker. Beware! On the few occasions that you won’t be able to experience the glory of cashing out with that $3 profit and puffing up proudly, you’re likely to suffer painful losses and depart pitifully from the poker table, all chance of recovery now hopeless. Maybe chance of recovery tomorrow will be hopeless, too. You will have lost way more than you should have. And I’m not talking about a magic stop-loss or predetermined limit on how much you should risk in a game.

Listen closely. I’m saying something different. I’m saying you lost much more than you should because you played poker in the worst of circumstances. When you’re winning, opponents are usually intimidated by you. They’re less likely to play their best games, less likely to make daring bets and raises with winning hands and extract every penny of profit from you. This means you can make value bets that can push your profits to the limit. Opponents who are intimidated usually keep calling in frustration, but seldom raise with anything but obviously strong hands. In doing so, they neglect to take advantage of all their edges, so you rule the table, and your profit soars.

Conversely, when you’re losing, opponents are inspired. They play better against you specifically. They think, “Hey, there’s someone I can beat. There’s someone who’s unluckier than I am.” And they single you out for money extraction.

So, I don’t like to hear about long manufactured winning streaks, because I know that those invite huge manufactured losses, too. And, in the long run, long winning streaks usually mean that you’ve played most of your time under bad circumstances and limited the time you’ve played under good circumstances. And that isn’t a smooth path to poker profit.

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