The Poker Lab Rat

Even the best poker players in the world make mistakes, and when these mistakes are not corrected, they can develop into “leaks” that can easily sink your game. There are two leaks in particular that I see all the time with regard to Hold ’em starting hands that people play but would be better off folding.

The first of these two leaks involves playing easily dominated hands. Domination in Texas Hold ’em is death, so you must make an effort to fold potentially dominated hands pre-flop if another player has voluntarily entered the pot.

This concept spins off of David Sklansky’s “Gap Principle”, which essentially says that the range of hands you’re willing to raise with should be wider than the range of hands you’re willing to call with.

For instance, if everyone folds to me and I have K-Q off-suit on the button, I’m going to raise. It’s likely the best hand, and I give myself a chance to steal the blinds. However, if a middle position player raises before the flop, I’m going to throw that K-Q away quickly. That K-Q is very easily dominated by the hands my opponent is likely to raise with in middle position, such as A-K, pocket Kings, pocket Aces, pocket Queens, and A-Q. These are hands that K-Q will have a very difficult time beating, and if we both flop a pair, I could be in severe trouble and lose my entire stack.

To further illustrate this point, here’s a mathematical look at why a theoretically powerful hand, if dominated, is worse than playing random rags. Say my opponent raises in first position with A-K and it folds around to me on the button with 7-2 off-suit, the worst hand in poker. If I call there, I’m about a 65-35 underdog.

Now let’s say I have A-Q on the button facing that same raise from A-K. Now my hand is about a 75-25 underdog, which is significantly worse than if I had 7-2.

It’s not easy to fold A-Q to a single raise pre-flop, but if the raise is coming from early position and you have reason to believe your opponent has a premium hand, A-Q could easily be dominated. More to the point, that next tier of starting hands—K-Q, Q-J, Q-10, K-10, K-J—those are hands you should just throw away if your opponent opens the pot for a raise.

The other leak involving starting hands that I see frequently is overvaluing suited hands. I see players with A-5 suited or 8-7 suited and they play the hands because they think they might flop a flush. In reality, when you’re suited you will only flop a flush about one out of 121 times. That’s about 0.84 percent of the time. It does not happen very often. And even when it does happen, you’re not likely to win a big pot.

If you take a hand like A-5 suited and compare it to A-5 off-suit, in reality, against the range of hands your opponent might be playing, it only adds about two to three percent to your expectation of making the best hand.

So don’t be fooled by being suited. Just because the hand is suited does not mean that it is playable. The ranks of the cards are much more important than whether or not your hand is suited.

When making your pre-flop decisions, if you can resist the urge to play hands that are likely dominated and resist the urge to play mediocre suited cards, I think you’ll find yourself playing a more profitable brand of poker in the long run.

ABOUT PHIL: 

Phil Gordon won the 2003 World Poker Tour (WPT) and has made five WSOP final tables. He has banked over $2.1 million in career tournament earnings and is the author of 3 popular poker books.  Phil Gordon, like many of the top pros, plays poker online exclusively at Full Tilt Poker. Join him at a table sometime!

ABOUT FULL TILT POKER:

>>Review and Rating of FullTiltPoker.com (PokerLabRat.com)
>>Review of FullTilt Poker (Gooners Guide to Gaming) 

In hold ‘em, you hear a lot of talk about aces and kings being the ultimate hands. That’s true, but don’t be too quick to put them in the same category, as many players do. A pair of aces before the flop logically belongs in a category all to itself.

Here’s how often each hand wins against nine opponents holding random hands when everyone stays to the river…

A-A = 31% (21 percentage points higher than a fair share)

K-K = 26% (16 percentage points higher than a fair share)

What really makes the difference is that, when you consider actual betting strategy, A-A is much more likely to gain extra bets and to stay out of trouble. For this reason, in the hands of a professional, A-A can be almost twice as profitable as K-K overall in a full-handed game. That’s something to keep in mind.

Mike Caro

Mike Caro plays online at DoylesRoom.com Poker. Check out this popular poker site for more free tips, video tutorials and for some great poker play. (US OK) 

You should, of course, exercise caution when there are four cards of one suit on the board and you don’t have a flush. But sometimes you should bet right into that board without a flush.

The best time to bet is when you have two pair, three-of-a-kind, or a straight against a lone sophisticated player who has checked into you. If there were raises before the flop and parts of the four-flush on the board are high cards, especially an ace, figure it’s more likely that your opponent does NOT have a flush.

He is more apt than usual to hold high cards, and those high cards are likely to MATCH the suited cards on the board. There are fewer likely ranks that will provide your opponent with a flush, and it’s more likely than usual that he has a pair. So, sometimes bet two pair. Not only can this be a profitable decision, the play will enhance your image.

Mike Caro

Mike plays poker online at Doyle Brunson’s poker room: DoylesRoom.com. Join him at a table sometime. Great bounty poker plays most Wednesdays too… scalp a pro? nah… scalp a legend!

Ever dreamed of going to the Super Bowl? How about the World Series, Stanley Cup, or NBA Finals? Win it All!

The crew at popular online poker site Bodog Poker are sure that you’ll think that he opportunity to see these four ‘must-see-before-you-die’ sporting events in one year is just crazy talk. But here it is… 

The Ultimate Sports Fan Prize Package: Bodog Poker is giving one lucky person 2 tickets to the NBA Finals, Stanley Cup Finals, Super Bowl, AND World Series, including airfare, accommodations, and $500 in spending money to each event. 

Players can earn their entry into the draw by playing in eligible Sit and Go Tournaments between February 15th and March 14th 2010. Easy!

Hungry for more action?  Bodog Poker is also giving away weekly trips and tickets to an NCAA March Madness Game, UFC event, U.S. Open (Golf), or NASCAR event. Plus players can earn a seat at 1 of 2 $5,000 freeroll tournaments. 

It’s easy, just play and cash in the qualifying “Sit and Go” tournaments. 

OK, so what’s the catch? ….

Qualifying for the Grand Prize: Players must cash (receive a payout), in 3 eligible real money “Sit and Go” Tournaments between February 15th and March 14th 2010.  That’s it! And with players only able to earn one entry person, everyone has an equal chance of winning! (Yes, even total poker mutts like me!)

Qualifying for the Weekly Prizes: Players must play in 5 eligible “Sit and Go” Tournaments that week.  There is a new prize each week of the promotion, so players who want to get in on all 4 draws, can come back every week and earn their entry.

Qualifying for the Freeroll Tournament: Getting into one of the two $5,000 freeroll tournaments, players must cash (receive a payout), in 3 eligible real money “Sit and Go” Tournaments between February 15th and March 14th 2010.  Qualifying players will be notified by Email with registration details.

Good luck! 

Mike

PS: Pity finals tickets to the World Cup Football aren’t included too …but that’s just me being picky!

PPS: New to Bodog Poker? Bodog Poker is easy to play and easy to download. There’s even a great 110% to $1100 welcome bonus running for new players in February) The links on this blog post are geotargeted so if you click through you’ll get your local version of this promotional offer. USA residents, Canadians and UK players are eligible to enter.

For more on Bodog Poker check out these player reviews:

>>Bodog Poker Review at GoonersGuide.com
>>PokerLabRat.com Bodog Poker Review

Some say you shouldn’t ever gamble unless you have the best of it. But most of the really successful gamblers I’ve ever met sometimes are willing to wager when they’re not sure they have an edge.

Why? It’s simple. Suppose someone challenges you to tennis. You know the challenger is no athlete, but neither are you. Fine. You might turn out to have the worst of this bet. But here’s the big secret. It’s often worth finding out! If the challenger is not a sophisticated gambler and seems to have a lot of funds to lose, you should risk taking the worst of it. Ideally, if you find out you’re the poorer tennis player, you’ll back off or just make small sociable bets for an hour to be polite. If you find out you’re the favorite, you’ll keep playing and try to increase the stakes.

This tactic is used by most all-around successful gamblers worldwide, whether they have reasoned it out or just do it instinctively. The point is that you don’t always need to have the best of it. If it turns out that you don’t, you might lose a little. If it turns out that you do, you’ll probably win a lot.

More poker tips and advice, including video tutorials can be found online - free - at DoylesRoom.com Poker (Players from around the world including USA are safe and welcome).

The next evolution of poker is here - designed specifically for the short attention spans of todays mobile generation.

Rush Poker* is the world’s fastest poker game, designed to minimize the wait between hands - and it’s only available at Full Tilt Poker.

Be warned: Rush Poker* is the most intense poker experience in the world. You can easily play 360 hands an hour and can now only play premium hands without all the boring waiting for cards in between.

Unlike a standard ring game, when you play Rush Poker* you join a large player pool and face a different table of opponents each and every hand.

When YOU fold your cards, you are immediately moved to a new table for your next hand which starts playing almost immediately !

If that’s not enough you can play even faster, as there is the Quick Fold button to fold hands right away - even if it’s not your turn turn to act. This is how poker should be!

For more information on Rush Poker* go to Full Tilt Poker now and check out the details for Rush Poker* under the “How To Play” option in the main menu on site. DO IT NOW!

In tournaments, you should always be looking for ways to pick up chips. You can’t just sit around waiting for Aces or Kings and hope to double up when you do. One of the best and most popular ways for adding chips to your stack is by implementing what’s known as the squeeze play.

A typical squeeze play works like this: an active and aggressive player raises in late position, and he’s called by another player on the button. You’re in the blinds and you have to decide what to do.

There’s no real indication yet that anyone has a particularly strong hand. The aggressive player could be raising with a wide range of hands, and the call from the button could mean a lot of things. He may have a medium strength hand, or he may be pretty weak and just looking to play post-flop with favorable position.

At this point, a big re-raise from the blinds effectively squeezes the original raiser who is between you and the player on the button. Your aggressive re-raise gives you a great chance of taking down the pot right there.

It used to be that good players used the squeeze play occasionally. It was just one of the many tools they used from time to time. But recently, the squeeze play has become extremely popular. Sometimes it seems that pretty much any time there’s a raise and a call, there’s a player in the blinds looking to squeeze.

I prefer to be a little more selective when initiating a squeeze. I like to have a hand that can hit a flop if I run into a decent hand and get called. In my experience, suited connectors are good hands to squeeze with.

I think the squeeze is most effective when you have a tight table image. When you’ve been playing actively and aggressively the other players at the table are less likely to give you credit for a big hand and will call you down.

You can try the squeeze in ring games, but it’s really most effective in tournaments. When players have to fear for their tournament lives, they’re far more likely to fold in marginal situations.

If you haven’t been using the squeeze play, you should try working it into your tournament game. Start out by squeezing selectively and wait for opportunities where the players, cards and your table image give you the best chance of winning the pot.

ABOUT LEE MARKHOLT:
Lee Markholt of Eatonville, Washington, learned how to play poker by accompanying his father to watch him play games in local cardrooms. He built his bankroll by playing live small-stakes ring games and tournaments. As his skills in Pot-Limit and No-Limit Hold ‘em improved, he moved up the levels and realized he could make a living from poker.

Lee has made 10 World Series of Poker cashes, 20 WPT cashes and amassed over $2.8 million in career tournament earnings.

Lee Markholt plays online at Full Tilt Poker.

Microgaming has said this week that it intends to bring datamining on its Poker Network to a halt. 

It will do this by no longer allowing hand histories on observed tables to be stored on players’ computers and the ability to download and store hand histories in bulk will be stopped.

Andrew Clucas, Head of Poker at Microgaming commented : “The long-term effect of third party software on the recreational player has been quite negative” … “The decision to put a stop to the practice of datamining on the Poker Network is part of Microgaming’s overarching network strategy to support operators in attracting and retaining recreational players.”

Third party software can be used to analyse hand histories and the focus has changed from self-analysis to being used to exploit another player’s weaknesses. This gave the semi-professional ”grinder” player a lot of information on his opponents and a far a greater edge than in any other setting.

This change to hand histories should put recreational players back on a level playing field with the “grinders” and make playing the  cards more important than hours of data analysis.

It’s a good move.

People always ask, “How much do I need to play in a certain stake game?” The usual answer to all poker questions is, “It depends.” But in this case, it is the wrong question. The question really should be, “Given my temperament and current financial situation, how much can I risk in a game?”

Let’s examine these components. First is your temperament. Years ago, Mike Caro distinguished between two types of players – plodders and adventurers. I like to put poker players into three categories. First are the plodders. They are extremely risk adverse and would rather play for pennies than take a chance of going broke. Next are the normal players. The normal players are willing to take moderate risk if they think they have a reasonable advantage. Lastly there are the plungers. They love to take extreme risk. They are the poker equivalents of mountaineers who want to reach the top of Mount Everest. The risk in question is, of course, losing a large percentage of your bankroll or, in the worst case, going broke.

There are many gradations of each of these types, and many players may go from plodders when winning to plungers when losing. Likewise, external circumstances may change a player. Losing a job, getting married, having a kid, etc. make some players eager to avoid risk and others desperate to win a fortune.

The second component to examine is your financial situation, specifically your bankroll. Some people have jobs, businesses or other outside sources of income. Some do not. I am going to divide bankroll types into three categories – small, medium and large. A small bankroll is an amount you could get in a month or less from working, from your business or from your investments. For some people this may be a few hundred and for others a few hundred thousand. A medium bankroll should take about six months to accumulate. A large bankroll takes at least a year. If you have no outside sources of income, treat your bankroll as large. Losing a small bankroll is distracting, losing a medium one is disturbing and losing a big one is disastrous.

Your temperament should not change from session to session. It is possible that you might want to adjust your risk threshold a little higher for great games and a little lower for bad ones. Before starting any session of any game, determine what your bankroll is and then refer to the chart below. This chart gives my opinion of the correct percentage of your bankroll to risk in any game. Use the appropriate percentage to calculate the amount you can risk.

If you lose that amount, I’d advise you to quit for the day. If you don’t want to quit, make sure you re-calculate the amount you can lose starting from your diminished bankroll. As long as you continually recalculate the amount you can risk, you will never go broke. If you are playing in games where you have the worst of it, you will eventually end up with such a small bankroll that it is meaningless. But in general, you will be able to risk larger amounts (not larger percentages) as your winnings accumulate, and you will be forced to play smaller when you are losing.

Why can you take more risk with a small bankroll? Because it is easier to get it back. As your bankroll gets larger, it becomes harder to replace it and going broke becomes more disastrous. It is much easier to rebuild a bankroll of five thousand then to rebuild one of five million. (Yes, there are players who have built up a bankroll of five million or more, and then gone broke or even into debt.) While these guidelines are customized to provide bankroll management strategies for a variety of temperaments and bankroll sizes, they will enable a winning player to avoid disasters and steadily increase his bankroll.

ABOUT STEVE ZOLOTOW:
Steve is Nicknamed “Z” and “The Bald Eagle”, he has 2 WSOP Bracelets and is a renowned game theorist. Steve Zolotow plays online at Full Tilt Poker.  Initially, he concentrated on cash games, but lately, he’s been focusing more on tournaments.  (Join him at a table sometime soon at FullTiltPoker.com)

Full Tilt Poker, one of the world’s largest online poker sites, suffered a server crash during the busy Sunday night period.

The crash occurred at 7:45pm ET and players were dropped from the website and unable to log back in. When attempting to open the Full Tilt client, players received a message saying, “Unable to connect to server.” This went on for 3.5 hours.

The server crash affected everyone playing on the site, including those still alive in Full Tilt’s flagship Sunday tournament, the big $216 buy-in with $750,000 Guaranteed.

Full Tilt Poker cancelled all running tournaments at 9:41pm ET. Then, at approximately 11:15pm, ET, the site’s support staff sent the following e-mail to players who were still playing in tournaments:

When a tournament is cancelled before it reaches the money, according to tournament rule 31.2 :

-All players still in the tournament at the time of the cancellation will be refunded their tournament buy-in and tournament fee. Players will have their initial buy-ins refunded in the tournament prize pool currency.

-In addition, the remaining prize pool will be divided and distributed according to chip count - (Remaining Prize Pool)*(Your Chip Count)/(Total Chips in Play) = Your Share of Remaining Prize Pool.

Full Tilt Poker was back on Monday morning and has been running normally since.