Paul Wasicka: On The Future of Poker
People were surprised at the number of “amateurs” at the final table in the 2006 WSOP Main Event. This year they wondered if a pro would ever win the Main Event ever again! While the Main Event is far from a scientific analysis of how the poker world is doing, it’s a good jumping off point.
One year removed from my seat at the Main Event final table, people kept asking me what had changed in my life. But as I looked out at this year’s final table, I kept thinking about how poker had changed. More importantly, I kept asking “What will poker look like in the future?” This isn’t a “year in review” or anything like that, but it’s important to see what has affected poker this year in order to predict what might cause changes down the road. While poker has been around in some form or other since time began, in recent years it has become a much more volatile industry, subject to the whims of media executives, popular perception, and lawmakers worldwide. Up until now, this volatility has meant one thing: incredible growth. Five years ago, 630 sat down for the Main Event. This year, 621 people got paid!
It’s hard to look at numbers like that and feel anything but optimistic about poker’s future. But let’s look at a few other numbers. In 2006, there were 8773 players. This year there were 6358. That’s a drop of 27.5%. Does this spell doom for poker? Perhaps not immediately and perhaps not at all, but just as money quickly won can be quickly lost, so too can an industry flash in the pan and then sputter out.
Poker has seen dramatic changes in the past year, many of them for the good. We’ve witnessed the rise of non-profit organizations like the Poker Players Alliance (PPA) and the World Poker Association (WPA), among others. These organisations are fighting for the future of poker, working to legalize and legitimize this great game and to keep it professional. They are also standing up for players’ rights. For too long, casinos and sponsors have wielded all of the power and made the decisions upon which literally millions of dollars ride, often without even consulting players. While we are still far from the equilibrium that the players deserve, it has been great to see some recent measures adopted that make the game more “player friendly”.
One of these changes came when WSOP officials made the payouts less steep for the Main Event. While that results in fewer stacks of hundreds behind the bracelet this year, it also means that more people can afford to continue playing poker because “merely” cashing in an event still means something.
There are other positive changes too. Last month the WPT tried a new final table structure during the Bellagio Cup. The goal? Increased post-flop play, more creativity; in essence: more skill. This has a number of benefits. Due to certain legal nuances, if poker is to survive, it must be considered a game of skill, not merely one of chance. For that reason alone, this slower structure is a good one, but it’s also time to give an informed television audience the skilled play they’ve been denied. They can handle it! The ratings might dip at first, but once people realize that all-ins don’t happen every single hand, I think audiences will prefer watching players get out-played instead of out-flopped. I’m not sure I’d even call what is typically shown on TV these days poker. I hate to say it, but if the only poker I knew was what I’d seen on TV, I’d be inclined to agree with the [US] government and most of the “haters” out there that this is primarily a game of luck. It’s time to showcase skill and the WPT went a long way toward doing just that.
And who knows? Maybe it’s all a conspiracy. Maybe “the man” set up steep structures to send the message that “anyone can win”, thus encouraging the growth of the game. I mostly joke, but whatever the reason, with “Cinderella stories” like Chris Moneymaker’s, my own, and thousands of others, I think people have gotten the point. Now it’s time to tell the other side of the story. The harder you work, the more you put in, the more you get out.
The negative influence on the game this year has undoubtedly been the passing of the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act (UIGEA). AT the time of the bill’s passing, ESPN had been airing poker tournaments for years and changing the public’s perception of “gambling” with each rerun. The UIGEA did much to wipe out these good feelings. Most of the non-poker playing public didn’t bother to learn that the UIGEA did nothing to make the playing of online poker any more or any less legal than it already was. Nevertheless, the result was a huge black eye for poker. I can’t even count the number of friends and family members who kept asking me what I would do “now that online poker was against the law”.
So where does all this leave us? Did poker get it’s moment in the sun only to return to shady, smoke-filled back rooms, or is it here to stay? Now that the public has whetted it’s appetite for this great game, there’s no way it will totally die. But the way I see it, if poker is to thrive, we as players need to unite and fight for our right to play.
The first step is to repeal the UIGEA. Like the repeal of prohibition, as long as poker crosses the government’s palm with a little silver, there’s no reason why online poker has to be illegal. As it stands right now, people can watch poker on TV, and if their friend or a local charity has a game going, they can play a few hands; but other than that, without a sensible, user-friendly way to get money on and off poker sites, there’s no way for poker to attract new [American] people. Few people start playing poker at the $10,000 level (although I encourage this) and they need an easy, fun way to get started. Want another poker boom? Repeal the act, publicize the heck out of it, and make it easy for new people to play online poker.
The other way to keep poker booming is to go international. Fortunately, this is pretty much happening. Poker is taking the World by storm. The European Poker Tour has a solid following and last January’s Aussie Millions hosted the largest field that continent has ever seen.
Even more exciting is the prospect of new and potentially huge markets opening up in Asia. Singapore held its first poker tournament last year and news sources have recently announced that India will again hold the Asia Poker Classic. With ESPN airing World Series reruns in China now, over 1.3 billion people will be exposed to the game. Perhaps we’d better start learning how to say “all-in” in Chinese.
With these recent changes and possibilities of things to come, you ask, “What does the future of poker look like?” I think it looks really good. I believe we are seeing the rise of ethical, player-friendly tournaments featuring players from across the globe in venues worldwide. Ultimately it’s still too early to tell exactly what the future holds, but I like my chances.
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When the final table started I had a chip stack of about 1.2 million or almost one-third of the chips in play. So the average among the rest of the table was a little over 250K, or approximately 13 big blinds.
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Jerry Yang had been chip leader since early in the day, when it got to heads up play he had a 5-1 chip lead over his opponent Tuan Lam.
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