The Poker Lab Rat

 One of the most frequent questions I am asked is about how to play hands like middle pairs against a raise. This comes up when someone raises in front of you and you have the choice of flat calling the raise or re-raising with a hand like 10-10 (this comes up whether or not there are any callers in between you and the raiser).

There are arguments for playing it both slow and fast: Some players prefer the call and some prefer the raise. The justifications I hear have to do with risk and trapping and small-pot poker and the like; but in the end, the decision on whether to raise or not really comes down to math and decision making. I personally have no predetermined preference for either play. Instead I look at the specific situation I am in to determine which play is likely to be more profitable and give me fewer headaches – and that’s the choice I make.

So, let’s look at how you make the most profitable mathematical and game-theoretical choice. Suppose you have a single raiser in front of you and you are playing $10/$20 blinds, the raiser makes it $60 to go and you look down at 10-10. You must analyse the math of the call versus the raise. Basically calling will create some problems. Assuming you are against a reasonably aggressive player, you can suppose the player is going to bet at nearly all the flops. Over 50% of the time, the flop is going to have an overcard in it. Now you have gotten yourself into a guessing situation: You aren’t sure whether your 10-10 is good in the face of the jack, queen, king or ace that just fell on the board.

Even worse, if the board does come all undercards to 10-10, you are still in a guessing situation if your opponent puts any amount of pressure on you. You are likely to end up committing a lot of chips in that kind of spot. The only card you can be really happy to see on the flop is a ten – and you are 7.5 to 1 dog to flop a set. Since you are only against one guy at this point, he is going to have to sail off to you for 7.5 times your initial call or $420 bucks just for you to break even to the original call, assuming you break even to all other boards – which might be stretching it since you don’t have the lead.

The take away is that in poker, it is generally a good idea to avoid situations that are likely to present you with headaches down the road. When the overcard flops to your 10-10, you are scratching your head wondering why you played the hand so soft. When the board comes up nine-high and your opponent puts pressure on you, you’re left wondering what on Earth you can beat besides a complete bluff and are in danger of either folding to the worst hand or losing your stack to the best one. Trouble.

But that does not mean that raising is always correct, because raising is not always the most profitable choice. When is it correct? When you believe that you will win the pot over 50% of the time from the moment of the raise. Why? Because in order to justify putting in the extra chips beyond the call, those chips have to be earning and serving a real and describable purpose. Let’s looks at the earn first.

You know that at a minimum you’re going to call with the 10-10. That means that the $60 call is already part of the pot. But now you are considering a raise, trying to decide whether putting the extra chips in the pot will do something good for you. The price you get on the raise will be about even money. With blinds of $10 and $20, the original raise of $60, and your call of $60, you should be raising the pot, which is $150. That means you will be putting in a total of $210 or so ($150 beyond the $60 call you were going to make anyway). So you are risking an extra $150 to win $150. That means your break even point on the raise is 50/50. If you think there is a greater than 50/50 chance that you will win the pot by raising, either right there or down the road, then you should go ahead and make the raise. Mathematically, 50/50 is going to be your break even point (this holds true even if there are other callers in the hand, since you will be raising the pot then as well).

But there are also compelling decision-making and game-theory reasons for choosing the raise instead of the call. First, you can knock out the rest of the field even if your original raiser doesn’t fold. And with a hand like 10-10, which you would really like to win without improvement, narrowing the field is super important. Second, you can take the lead away from the raiser so, when the overcards come, your decision becomes less difficult; since your opponent will check you, you can bet and find out right there where your hand is (you will usually just win it right there). Third, when the raiser does call, you can determine a very, very narrow range of hands he can have. You have much more information about his holdings and that will help you make better decisions after the flop.

Most importantly though, you are avoiding the tougher decisions you will be put to when you leave the lead to the other guy. This means that if you conclude the raise will be profitable, you should generally take that choice to make things easier on yourself. The reason I have no overall preference on the play is that there are lots of games where the raise doesn’t really buy you anything. It doesn’t increase your chances of winning enough. When your opponents are playing loose, they are going to call with too many hands, so you don’t really buy any information. And they are not laying down when they catch part of the flop, so you aren’t buying much of a lead. This kind of game comes up a lot in the early stages of online poker tournaments, for example. In those kinds of games I strongly lead towards the flat call.

Poker is totally situational. Once you understand the implications of the choice you make, like raising or calling, you can adjust your choices effortlessly to the type of game you are in.

For more poker tips from professional players check out the tips directory at PokerLabRat.com

Compare the latest online poker rooms rated for USA residents

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How Good is your Poker? Do you Rate?

Poker is a game with worldwide recognition and a massive field of elite players. A new ranking system, recently introduced at popular Carbon Poker, aims to give players a credible reference on their overall poker skills. The rankings help players to set themselves goals and to monitor play progress better than factors such as “bankroll growth” or “number of hands played” (time-in). It also gives you another statistically based method to “stick it to the little guy” (bragging rights).

This poker ranking system is based on the ELO rating system, a world-class official system popular for ranking international Chess players that has also been adapted for player ratings at some sports. 

The ELO rating system ranks poker players by assigning a base numerical score, with wins and losses adjusting the score as you play. ELO rewards strong play against tough opponents, and penalizes bad play against weak opponents.

This is a long-term fully automated promotion on the Merge Gaming Network (Carbon Poker) and is available to all players.

Here is a typical example provided by by the team at Carbon Poker on how the new player ranking system works:

A player in a bounty tournament with a below-average ELO score may eliminate a player with a high ELO score. Because the high-ranking player is effectively judged as a stronger competitor, the low-ranking player is awarded more points, because they defeated a player far above their determined skill level. Alternatively, If the high-ranking player eliminates a weak player, they will still earn points, but not nearly as many because the ELO system has ranked them as an easy opponent based on their playing history.

For this reason, the ELO system can be used effectively by any player regardless of their time commitment to the game. It rewards quality of play (defeating tough opponents, avoiding eliminations) above quantity of tournaments and number of bounties claimed. While tournament place isn’t a factor in calculating ELO scores, the top players will generally progress to the later stages of the tournament, and therefore this is where all the top points are found.

To rate highly in CarbonPoker.com’s ELO system, you need to perform well with both eliminations and tournament placings. Check out the basics on site at Carbon Poker so you understand the mathematics - e.g. For every 3 consecutive days that a bounty event is not played, players will have their ELO rating decayed by 15 points.

The ELO system works across all Bounty tournaments and Sit n’ Gos, and every player is automatically registered for an ELO score. Play as many or as little Bounty games as you like and track your progress via ‘Player Admin’ throughout each month.

ELO points start at 1500 each month, and the highest ranking players at the end of the month will receive leaderboard prizes of cash and tournament entry coupons as well as player acolades. The counters are reset as each month rolls over.
Check out the Bounty Grand Master promotion at Carbon Poker if you want to know just how good your poker skills are.

For more information on this US-friendly poker site read the latest independent player review for Carbon Poker onsite at PokerLabRat.com.

Know your poker math?

In my opinion the most under utilized form of learning in poker is simple algebra. I’m not talking about anything complicated like Bill Chen’s calculus in his “The Mathematics of Poker” book, but simple eighth grade algebra that you can use in all kinds of poker situations.

Here’s a quick example:
You have a draw. Your opponent bets on the flop, and you think calling is a bad option because you don’t think this particular opponent will pay you off if the draw hits, but he will put you all-in if it doesn’t. Your options are to raise all-in or to fold. There is $150 in the pot, and your opponent bets $100. If you were to move all-in, it would be an additional $200 for your opponent to call. You estimate that you would win approximately a third of the time when you are called.

Q. How often does your opponent need to fold for raising all-in to be better than folding?

Let’s split it up into two situations: x% of the time your opponent will fold, and you will win $250; y% of the time your opponent will call. Of that y%, 2/3 of the time, you will lose your entire stack of $300. The other 1/3 of the time, you will win $450 (your opponent’s stack + the pot).

Your raise equity is x(250) - 2/3(y)(300) + 1/3(y)(450) if you move all-in. That is the same as 250x - 200y + 150y = 250x - 50y. Since x and y add up to 100% of the time. (x = when he folds, y = when he calls), we can say that x+y = 1. That is the same as x=1-y.

So we now substitute for x: 250x-50y = 250(1-y)-50y = 250-250y-50y = 250-300y.

Re= 250-300y. Let’s set Re to 0 to find out when a raise is break even: 0=250-300y. 300y=250; y=250/300=5/6; x=1/6.

That means that if our opponent folds just 1/6th of the time, we have a break even play. Any more than that and we will show a profit. Let’s check our work to make sure it’s right.

So if 1/6 of the time we win 250 and 10/18 of the time [5/6 x 1/3] we lose 300; 5/18 [1/6 x 1/3] we win 450. Let’s see if that adds up to 0.

(1/6)(250) + (10/18)(-300) + (5/18)(450) = 41.667 – 166.667 + 125 = 0. That math is correct.

To some people, that answer may seem extreme. There is enough money in the pot that, with just a 33% chance of winning, our opponent has to fold only 1/6 for an all-in semi bluff to be the correct play.

Generally this math is too complicated to do at the table, but I like to do a simple calculation like this every now and then when I am curious about a situation. The math may seem hard if you haven’t done it in a while, but it’s straight out of your eighth or ninth grad algebra text book.

I figure that if a 14 year old is responsible for knowing this math, a successful professional poker player should be responsible for the same math if he wants to be able to claim that he knows the fundamentals.

Professional Poker player Justin “ZeeJustin” Bonomo has held sponsorship deals with two top US-friendly online poker rooms: Bodog Poker and Full Tilt Poker.

For more information on these top rating online poker rooms check out PokerLabRat.com for the latest reviews and comparisions.

Justin was the unfortunate pro who got caught with multiple entries and publicly outed for cheating in major online poker tournaments, but he also can claim fame as the youngest player (at that time) to have ever made a televised final table at 19 years, 5 months, and 20 days at the French Open in Deavuille, France, where he finished 4th.

New bill to stop implementation of unworkable UIGEA regulations 

New legislation - H.R.5767 - introduced by House Financial Services Committee chairman Barney Frank and Republican presidential aspirant Ron Paul, if approved, will effectively curtail the further operation of the UIGEA.

According to a statement from Frank and Paul, HR 5767 introduced this week seeks to prohibit the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and the Treasury secretary from “proposing, prescribing, or implementing any regulation that requires the financial services industry to identify and block Internet gambling transactions.”

Both Congressmen claim the UIGEA unduly infringes upon personal freedoms. “The ban on Internet gambling infringes upon two freedoms that are important to many Americans: the ability to do with their money as they see fit, and the freedom from government interference with the Internet,” Representative Paul said.

And on the same subject but from a different source, it is great to hear the professional players getting stuck into this crazy political situation:

According to a recent article in April’s Bluff Magazine, four proposed bills are currently “floating through” Congress that could help legitimize online poker in the United States. Howard Lederer (on the board of directors of the Poker Players Alliance) is quoted as saying that he “believes that poker players will get some tangible results by the end of next year”.

Howard Lederer, Chris Fergusson, Barry Greenstein, Chris Moneymaker, Annie Duke, Andy Bloch and Vanessa Rousso were among the top professionals as members of the Poker Players Association, that met individually with about fifty members of Congress.

Roussou is quoted as saying “I found that the majority of Congress people are actually misinformed on what poker is. They see the old image of smokey backroom gambling.”

“When politicians see a losing proposition, they will abandon it”, Lederer said. “Once we accomplish some sort of national regulatory framework for online poker, I don’t think the PPA is going anywhere. You look at the National Rifle Association or Christian Rights groups, and once they have success they don’t just disengage. I would imagine poker players will be active for some time to come.”  (The PPA has a membership over 900,000 members - and you can join too!) 

“The bottom line is if poker isn’t a game of skill then I’ve been getting lucky for 36 years” Robert Williamson III

The Poker Players Alliance (PPA) is an American nonprofit Interest group formed to “to speak with one voice to promote poker, and to protect the players’ rights. The PPA aims to get laws such as the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006 overturned either through political or judicial means.

If you’re US based and looking for a good safe online poker room, check out the latest comparison of the top poker sites for Americans at PokerLabRat.com. 

Despite financial institutions admitting that implementing measures required under the new American ‘anti online gambling’ legislation are verging on impossible, especially without further definition and clarification, some USA based poker players are still struggling to deposit and cash out from their favorite online poker rooms.

The team at PokerLabRat.com understands that a number of previously viable poker deposit methods such as ePassporte are now no longer options for US players. We have therefore developed a summary of poker deposit options at each of the US Player-friendly poker sites that we review and recommend. It may be of assistance to you when you’re deciding which site to join to build that bankroll!

Carbon Poker
With it’s friendly support team in Australia, Carbon Poker offers a couple of reliable payment methods that may suit you, namely: Fonelinx (pre-paid phonecard poker deposits), eWalletExpress (a US-friendly online wallet) and EcoCard Poker Deposits (another branded e-Wallet that takes US customers). Visa and mastercard deposit options are also available for US Players at Carbon Poker - but it really depends on your bank. Prepaid Visa cards are also a viable option for US online poker deposits if your bank does not play ball and let you use your usual Visa account for poker.

Carbon Poker has a good reputation for efficient, no B.S. processing of cash outs to American poker players. If you’re not a member yet at Carbon Poker, use the bonus code FIRST1K for a 200% to $500 join bonus.

Full Tilt Poker
This serious-money poker room requires some serious-money deposit solutions for its huge contingent of US-based players.

Moneygram is apparently the easiest (and cheapest) way to make large deposits at FullTiltPoker.com. Players just need to set up an account then e-mail the Full Tilt Poker customer suppoert team who’ll send instructions to make each deposit a nice discrete, hassle free transaction. Pre-paid visa cards are recommended by Full Tilt Poker for smaller deposits. If you reference the referral code GOG when you sign-up you’re eligible for the maximum deposit bonus available of $600.

Bodog Poker
Bodog offers an amazing online digital entertainment site specifically targeted at USA residents. Formerly Canadian based, Bodog’s popular sportsbook is focused on US-sports betting, their online poker has $5 Million in guaranteed tournament prizes a month and the Bodog Casino has excellent blackjack, video poker and even some slots worth a look if you’re that way inclined…
 
Deposit Methods at Bodog Poker that work well for US based players include eWalletExpress (an online wallet that takes USA residents) and Instant Check/eCheck (instant bank transfers). Depositing a Check by mail is also an option. Apparently Bodog is currently one of the easiest poker sites (and Sportsbooks and Casinos) for Americans to deposit with and they take cash outs pretty seriously with a great team onboard to process these ASAP. Bodog Poker’s latest bonus for new players is 110% to $550.

For more information on each of these Poker rooms for American players use the links above to visit them directly or:

Read the latest detailed poker room reviews of each of these US-friendly sites: 
>>Review of Carbon Poker
>>Review of Full Tilt Poker
>>Review of Bodog Poker

Compare the US friendly poker rooms on one page here at PokerLabRat.com

If you’ve always wanted an easy way to relive those poker hands of the past or a more personalised poker experience, check out the latest software release at Doyles Room.

This week popular online poker room, Doyles Room, has upgraded their poker platform with a major revamp. Not just “tweaks” either, this one’s a major coup that in our view positions Doyles Room as one of the very best sites to play poker!

The new feature we like the best is the ability to replay poker hands from your play history. Relive them to analyse, or show off - we don’t care - just check it out.

We also like the new ability to resize and more readily tile tables for multiple table play. Excellent.

Doyles Room also now lets you customize stuff…like, uploading your own avatars, changing the colour of the table felt and even the poker room floor to make a personalized poker room on your own PC.

Other stuff has changed too so check it out.

If you’re already a member at Doyles Room, upgrade to the new poker software by opening your game client and the system will automatically do the rest.

If you’ve not tried Doyles Room poker yet, Download and experience how the game is meant to be played - the software is free.

Mike 

PS: Doyles Room may still not - in your view - offer THE most advanced or even THE BEST PLAY EXPERIENCE on the net, lots of this stuff is subjective - but it is pretty damned good poker software and the 500,000+ active players on the Microgaming Poker Network can’t be all wrong! I personally like what Carbon Poker has going down too…

Doyles Room is a lead member of the Microgaming Poker Network and is endorsed by poker greats like Doyle Brunson and Mike Caro. For more read the latest Doyles Room Poker Review here at PokerLabRat.com.

Poker players from around the world including 39 States of the USA are welcome at Doyles Room 

Last month top Aussie online entertainment site Canbet handed out a £20,000 betting bankroll to one lucky player to place on the Grand National. I did not win :-( , did you?

In April at Canbet Poker you can win a Playstation 3 and 2 of the latest football games!

Three Playstation®3’s are up for grabs, each including FIFA 08™ and FIFA Street™!

Playstation®3 is the most advanced gaming console on the market and the piece de resistance in high-definition entertainment. Blu-ray™ technology enables you to play the latest generation games, as well as watch movies in unparalleled HD quality. You can also listen to music, browse photos and connect to the Internet. Add to the mix two of the hottest football game titles and it doesn’t get better than this!

Three lucky poker players will win a Playstation 3 and 2 of the latest football games just by playing poker!

Register to participate by entering the promotional code: PS3 on the My Account page of the Canbet Poker website between 1 April 2008 and 30 April 2008. (New and existing Canbet customers are eligible to enter)

Earn an entry into the draw every time you:

- Play 50 Poker Raked Hands
- Bet £50 (€65) at Canbet Casino
- Bet £50 (€65) on Sports or Racing

The lucky winners will be announced on Thursday 1 May 2008.

>>Visit Canbet Poker (a member of the Microgaming Poker Network)

>>For more information on this great Australian poker room, check out the latest review of Canbet Poker here at PokerLabRat.com.

It just gets better - Carbon Poker has done it again. They’ve released a cool new feature that no other online poker site has yet to offer… and it’s a good one!

I guess that being a smaller bespoke online poker network without any of the  baggage and hype that some of the more “brand heavy” poker sites suffer means that Carbon Poker can lead, not follow, when it comes to software tweaks and enhancements.  Generally these come in 3 categories: ”Wow, cool”,  ”nice to have” and “we’d better have that too”.

In Carbon Poker’s latest software release (version 4.3) they’re the very first room to offer “Deal it Twice” in online poker!  (And that’s a “Wow, cool” by our standards - and we’re confident that other poker sites will be battling each other in the race to develop this feature ASAP)

Deal it Twice? Huh?

Deal it Twice: You get the chance in 2-player, all-in situations in certain ring games, to deal both turn and river cards twice. Here’s Phil from Carbon Poker with an example:

“Two players can go all-in after the flop - one player with a made hand, and the other with a draw. The players must both agree to deal it twice, with each deal worth half of the pot. The player with the made hand wants to take less risk of being drawn out on (assuming the opponent has a draw), and the drawing player wants more chances to hit”.

He says “This technique is becoming very popular, and you can see it employed in many live high stakes cash games”.  (So it’s great for budding late night high stakes television poker fans…)

Oh, yeah, what else is new at Carbon Poker?

They’ve added or enhanced features associated with Bounty Tournaments, their Bad Beat Jackpot, and Shootout Tournaments.

For a detailed review and rating of Carbon Poker check our PokerLabRat.com or visit them via any of the links on this page for the latest join bonuses and promotional offers.

Here’s the latest press release from the team at Bodog Poker. If you’re looking for an elite online poker tournament with far less hype (and less professional players!) than say, Full Tilt Poker’s FTOPS, then you might like to check this out.
 

March 3, 2008: Bodog Poker Open Kicks Off Today

Over the next seven days, online poker players will be competing for huge cash prizes and major bragging rights in the inaugural Bodog Poker Open (BPO), the biggest poker tournament in Bodog history.

The action on the virtual felt in the six-event series starts tonight with a $270 buy-in No Limit Holdem tournament. To sweeten the pot, Bodog is adding $10,000 to the tournament’s prize pool tonight and will add a total of $75,000 in additional money to the BPO’s prize pools this week, ensuring a much bigger payday for its players and giving them exceptional value for their buy-ins.

The BPO culminates on Sunday, March 9, at 4 p.m. EST, with the $500 buy-in Bodog Poker Open Main Event, where the winner will not only walk away with the top prize and be crowned the first ever Bodog Poker Champion, but will also receive an engraved Omega Speedmaster Pro watch worth $4,400

“This is the biggest poker tournament in Bodog history, and we’re letting our players know this by adding big money to the BPO’s prize pools and by giving our first ever Bodog Poker Champion something special to remember his or her win by,” said Morris Mohawk Gaming Group CEO Alwyn Morris. “We expect a great turnout in all of the BPO events as players compete for the cash and the glory.”

The six BPO events this week will have online players battling it out in different formats of Texas Holdem, including No Limit, Pot Limit, Limit, No Limit with Re-buys and Six-Handed No Limit. Winners of the preliminary events will win entry to the BPO Main Event in addition to their tournament winnings.

Players can buy directly into any of the events with cash or Bodog Tournament Credits or win their way in through any number of low-cost satellites running daily at the Bodog poker tables.

>>For more details on the inaugural Bodog Poker Open or the Bodog Poker Room, read the latest Bodog Poker Review at PokerLabRat.com here.

>>Visit Bodog Poker (Players from around the world are welcome to play at Bodog Poker, except Canadian residents. Bodog Poker is very popular with Americans from all states.)

Joe Hachem – on his performance in the 2007 Aussie Millions Poker Tourament. “To be honest, the year was a topsy turvey one for me, going right back to the Aussie Millions where I folded my way to 23rd place like a muppet. I just didn’t pull the trigger when I had to, and I’ll never forgive myself for that until I actually win the Aussie Millions”.

Mike Caro – on Bluffing
“Poker is psychological warfare. Bluffing is all about psychology, and you clearly need to choose targets that are psychologically bluffable at the moment….never attempt a bluff unless there are compelling reasons to make an exception”.

Paul Wasicka – on poker no longer being a man’s game
“We might not like to admit it but poker’s full of stereotypes and there are definitely a few pervasive ones about female players. The stereotypical female player is a bludgeoner, making pot sized bets and huge raises”.

Greg “Fossilman” Raymer – on leading the pack
“Poker is about making correct decisions. We don’t worry about the result, but rather about the decisions that are made at the time. In poker you can make every decision perfectly all night long and be a loser on the session. However, if you play optimally every night, you will come out ahead in the long run. The big difference between just playing a hand at the table and understanding the details of the hand is what elevates a poker player above the rest of the pack”.

Phil “Unabomber” Laak – who likes to write Arghghghgh a lot when writing about his own poker play
“Poker is a whipping ground of probability curves and philosophical conundrums. We enter and leave it at our own risk. All you can count on is this: Play it well, develop a strong sense of self worth and maybe…just maybe… you’ll survive the blender they call poker”.

For the latest poker tips and advice from these and other top professional poker players check out the Pro Tips Directory at PokerLabRat.com.