Cash Equity at the Final Table

Poker Professional Rafe Furst

While playing the final table of the $1,500 Pot-Limit Hold ’em event, I found myself in a difficult spot when we were down to four-handed play. I was in the big blind and Rizen, a tough, respected online tournament pro, was in the small blind. It was folded to Rizen who announced that he would raise the pot. With blinds of 15K/30K, his raise made it 90K to me.

At the time, I had about 400K in chips; Rizen had 750k and the other two players had about 250K each.

I looked at my cards and found As-8s, a pretty solid holding in short-handed play. I decided to raise the size of the pot. My total bet was 180. Rizen immediately re-raised, forcing me all-in.

The pot contained 580,000 (400,000 from Rizen, 180,000 from me) and I had 220,000 remaining. I was getting nearly 3 to 1 on my money, so this looked like an automatic call. I needed to win the pot only about 27 percent of the time to justify a call.

Against a big pocket pair (other than aces), my A-8 suited would win about 32 percent of the time. Against a bigger ace (A-K, A-Q, etc), my A-8 suited would win about 30 percent of the time. There was also a non-zero (though small) chance I was up against a small pocket pair and would win about 50 percent of the time.

So this was almost a zero-equity chip decision. That is, folding and calling would have pretty much same result over the long term. To find the correct action, I had to look beyond pot odds and consider (a) how this hand would affect my cash equity for the tournament (i.e., which action would maximize my expected cash payout) and (b) how this hand would affect my chances of winning the tournament.

There were two factors I looked at when considering my cash equity:

1 – Each chip in a short stack is more valuable in terms of cash-equity than each chip in a large stack. By calling in this situation I would have been risking chips of great value to pick up chips of lesser value.

2 – Folding removes any chance of busting. By folding, I would give my opponents a chance to bust on subsequent hands, which would move me up to a bigger payday.

After looking at these factors, it seemed that folding was the clear choice. But still, I had to think about how folding would effect my ability to win the bracelet – which was my primary concern. Would I be putting myself out of the running by giving up on so many chips? Not really.

When there are more than two players remaining, each additional chip you accumulate has a lesser impact on your ability to win the tournament. So when the chip-equity decision is a wash, you are better off folding than you are trying to accumulate more chips.

If you ever find yourself in a similar situation, you should also keep in mind that there’s a big difference between moving all-in and calling all-in. When you move in, you can win the pot by forcing a fold. When you call, this obviously isn’t possible.

I decided to fold and wait for a better spot, and I’m very glad that I did.

Rafe Furst

 

tickyHere’s a link to the latest Online Poker Room Review Directory from the crew down the road at Gooners Guide to Gambling. (PS: A Gooner is an Arsenal Football Club supporter… derived from “Gunner”, but these guys are really just online gambling fans with a minor bias towards the red and white).

 

Texas Holdem: Betting out of Position

Professional Poker tip

Every Hold ’em strategy guide talks about the importance of positional advantage. The standard thinking is that the player who acts last has more information than his opponents, so he’ll have a better sense of where he stands in a hand and can, therefore, make better decisions. There’s no doubt that this is true, but it’s important to understand that the power that comes with position is often granted to the late-position player by the early-position player.

To see what I mean, consider a pretty typical No-Limit hold ’em hand. Say that I’m in the big blind with 7s-8s – a nice, flop-worthy hand. The player on the button raises to three times the big blind and I decide to call. Many players would check the flop under almost any circumstances. But, by checking, you give control to the late-position player. He can bet whether or not he has a hand, putting you in a tough spot if you don’t get a piece of the flop.

In a hand like this, I believe it’s best to look at the flop and ask, “Is it likely that these cards helped my opponent?” Once I have an answer to that question, I can decide how to proceed.

If the flop is Ah-Kd-9c, I’d probably just check and fold to a bet, as my opponent was likely raising with big cards and caught a piece of the flop. However, if the flop is 9c-5h-2d, I’d probably be more skeptical. I know that in Hold ’em, two unpaired hole cards will fail to make a pair on the flop about 66 percent of the time, and this seems to be a flop that the pre-flop raiser might have missed.

If I suspect my opponent didn’t connect, I’m going to take the initiative and bet out about half the size of the pot. Betting here with my gutshot draw offers several advantages. First, I might take the pot down right here, and I’m always happy when a semi-bluff forces a fold. But even if I get a call from my opponent, I’ve forced him to react. That gives me a chance to pick up a read. If my opponent seems uneasy, I might continue with my semi-bluff on the turn and try again to pick up the pot. Or, if I feel my opponent is strong, I can check and fold to any bet on the turn if I fail to make my hand.

Stabbing at pots when out of position can be very lucrative. In tournaments, I’ll open-raise out of position fairly frequently because I think there’s a lot of power in being the first one to fire at the pot on the flop. I pick up a lot of small pots that way.

As you work on your Hold ’em game, remember that you don’t have to give the advantage in the hand to the player in late position. Look for opportunities to bet out and seize the initiative.

Gus Hansen

tickyTwo sites we all rate and recommend are UK’s bet365 Poker (top site on the iPoker network – Europe’s busiest and best) and Bookmaker Poker, a savvy Costa Rica based poker room on the WPN Network.

Pot-Size Manipulation

Another great tip from a poker pro at Full Tilt Poker

One of the key skills that winning big-bet players bring to the table is the ability to manipulate the size of the pot. They manage to play big pots when they have big hands, and keep the pot smaller when their holdings are more modest. If you think carefully about your betting throughout a hand, you can set yourself up to play a pot that’s appropriate for the strength of your hand.

For starters, let’s look at a hand that gets a lot of players in trouble – a big pocket pair. Generally, with any one pair, you should be looking to play a medium-sized pot. Of course, you’re happy enough to get all of your money in pre-flop with Aces, but beyond that, you should try to avoid playing huge pots with any one pair. Here’s an example of how you might manage the size of the pot while holding Aces.

Say that you raise pre-flop with pocket Aces and you’re called by the big blind. The flop comes down J-6-3 rainbow, and the blind checks to you. You bet three-quarters of the pot and the big blind calls.

At this point, you can assume your opponent has some kind of hand. Maybe he has a pocket pair or he hit top pair on the flop. The other possibility is that he hit a set on the flop and you’re in very bad shape. Given these likely hands, I think that checking behind your opponent if he checks to you on the turn is the best play. You avoid the possibility of losing a monster if you’re check-raised by a set. And if he does have a pair, you’re not giving away a whole lot of value by giving the free card. He may have two or five outs, which makes him a pretty big dog.

When you check the turn, you do so with the plan of calling a reasonable bet on the river. And if he checks to you on the river, you can put in a small value bet. At that point, your hand would be pretty well disguised, so he is likely to pay you off if he has anything at all.

So in this case, keeping the pot small will get you pretty good value when you’re ahead and help you avoid disaster when you’re behind.

Now let’s look at another type of hand that players commonly misplay – a flopped monster. Say you’re in the small blind in a No-Limit cash game. There are four limpers, including the small blind, and you check your option with A-T. The flop is huge for you – A-A-T. You have what is almost certain to be the best hand at showdown. Many players choose to check in this spot, fearing that a bet a will kill their action. And it very well might – it’s possible that everyone will just fold. But this is a situation where you want to give yourself the chance to win a big pot. You want someone to put in a lot of money on the turn and river while drawing dead, and that will only be possible if you start building a pot on the flop. In this situation, you’ve just got to hope that someone is holding the case Ace or decides to draw to a gutshot. So bet two-thirds of the pot on the flop and hope for the best.

Slow-playing might get you a few chips when you catch someone stabbing. But that would win you a tiny pot, and with this hand, you’re hoping to get a good portion of someone’s stack. You can only do that by betting and building a pot.

In the course of a hand think about what you can do to keep the pot appropriate to the strength of your hand. A timely check or a thoughtful bet can aid you in getting the most out of your hands.
Gavin Smith

AceKing2There’s lots of choice when it comes to poker networks including the iPoker Network, Microgaming Poker, Chico Poker and WPN Poker Networks. Check out the latest poker room reviews before you decide where to play your next hand of poker.

Mike Matusow: Love him or loathe him here is his latest Poker tip

 

Finding the Low Cards in Omaha Hi/lo

A while back, I played a hand in an Omaha Hi/Lo Limit tournament that had everyone at my table jumping off their chairs. They thought I was crazy and couldn’t believe my play. But I made the right move. In fact, the play illustrates an important Omaha Hi/Lo concept that’s not widely understood.

Here’s how the hand went down.

It was a nine-handed table. The under-the-gun player raised and another early position player three-bet. Two other players called the bet cold. It came around to me in the big blind, where I held 9-K-Q-2. This is usually considered a pretty trashy Omaha-8 hand. But I didn’t fold here; I four-bet. I then flopped the nuts and took down a huge pot. When they saw my hand, the players went crazy. How could I four-bet with that kind of trash?

I could do it because I made some good assumptions based on the way my opponents played their hands. This was a tournament, where most players tend to be pretty cautious. Few will play any hands that don’t contain Aces, and just about everyone is sticking to hands with a lot of low cards.

So when the under-the-gun player raised, I felt pretty confident in assuming that he had an Ace with some other low cards. The same goes for the player who three bet. The two callers must also have had hands that they thought were pretty strong. I could be all but certain that all four aces were dealt to these players, and that they held a lot of the deck’s low cards.

I was also confident that, in this hand, the flop was going to come at the high end of the deck and that I’d have a chance to sweep a huge pot because there would be no qualifying low. And that’s exactly what happened.

This hand shows that in Omaha Hi/Lo, you can often make some good assumptions as to what cards remain in the deck and what the flop is likely to hold. For another example, say that you’re in the big blind and it’s folded to the cutoff, who raises. You see 9-T-J-Q. With all but one player folding, you can be pretty sure that almost everyone else held a number of medium and high cards. So the deck is ripe with low cards, which will probably help your lone opponent’s hand. Your best move is to fold this hand pre-flop and wait for a better spot.

Of course, the better your position, the more information you’ll have. So you shouldn’t even consider playing certain hands in early position. Something like 2-3-4-5 might be playable from the button or the big blind if there hasn’t been a lot of action. The lack of raising would show that the Aces haven’t been distributed and are still in the deck. But in early position, you just don’t know what’s out, so you need to muck the hand. The same goes for hands like T-T-J-Q and T-J-Q-K. There are times when prior action will show you that these hands are worthy of a three-bet or four-bet. But in early position, it’s best to just let these kinds of hands go.

Being able to predict a flop is part of what makes Omaha Hi/Lo so much fun. You really can’t do these sorts of things in Hold ’em. If you hone these skills, you’re sure to be a tough Omaha Hi/Lo player.

Mike Matusow

usa_OKIf you’re USA-based, like Mike, you can play some great online at Bookmaker Poker or BetOnline Poker.

Professional Poker Play Must Consider the Long Term

 

Looking at the Long Term – Erik Seidel

Tournament poker can be a very tough business. No matter how good you are, you’re bound to encounter long periods where things don’t go well. On the tournament circuit, even the best players can go several months – or even a couple of years – between significant cashes. These dry spells can be tough to deal with if you don’t develop a solid mental approach to the game.

I think the down times are particularly difficult for younger players who have some success early in their careers. They come to expect great results and can become overwhelmed when things go badly in a long string of tournaments. They may grow frustrated and are apt to assume they’re making mistakes. They make changes in their games that aren’t well thought out, and they suffer because of it.

To endure the long, tough stretches, serious players need to understand that bad runs are inevitable. They’re part of this business. And while there’s something to be said for going into every tournament with a positive attitude, it’s also important to be realistic. If you expect to win every tournament you enter, the disappointment that accompanies repeated bust outs could be very damaging to your psyche. I know that early in my career, my confidence suffered when I went through a rough stretch.

Over time, however, I learned to focus my attention in productive ways. Now, when I’m playing in a tournament, I concentrate on making the best decisions I can. I try to approach every hand in a thorough and effective manner. If my focus is good at the table, I can be honest with myself as I assess what I’m doing well and where I need improvement. I’m not likely to fall into the traps that ensnare other players. Many refuse to admit mistakes and insist that a bad run is due to bad luck alone. Others believe they’re playing well when their results are good, even though they’re playing poorly and are benefiting from a great run of cards.

After a tournament is over, I’m quick to remember that tournament poker requires the temperament of a marathoner, not a sprinter. If I play well and consistently make good decisions, I’ll be rewarded, though it may be a long time before I see the results I’m looking for.

Erik Seidel

USOK_1If you’re USA-based, like Erik, you can play some great online at Bookmaker Poker or BetOnline Poker.

 

Fancy 7-card Stud? Here’s the latest tip from the pros at Full Tilt Poker

 

AcesPlaying Small and Medium Pairs in Seven-Card Stud  –  Perry Friedman

Small and medium pairs are among the trickiest hands you’ll encounter in Seven-Card Stud. Frequently you’ll get into situations where it seems that a modest pair might be the best starting hand, but you don’t really know. Even if that pair is ahead on third street, it’s not a big favorite over much of anything. So you need to be cautious with your smaller pairs in Seven-Card Stud, both on third street and on later betting rounds.

There are a few factors you should think about before putting your money in the pot on third street with a small or medium pair. The primary consideration is the previous action. If you’re sitting with a pair of 7s and there’s a completion and a re-raise before the action gets to you, you shouldn’t even consider playing them. You’re almost certainly up against a bigger pair and there’s no good reason for you to draw. Similarly, if a very tight players completes with a Queen showing while sitting to the immediate left of the bring-in, you may want to give him credit for a big pair. Get rid of your small pair and wait for a better opportunity.

You should be more willing to play a small or medium pair if there’s only a completion before the action gets to you. But even then, you need to look at a few factors before deciding whether or not you should continue with your hand. First, determine if your cards are live. If you’ve got split 7s with a King kicker, you can muck the hand if both a 7 and King are out. You’d like every card that would improve your hand to be live.

Another factor to consider is the size of your kicker. When starting with something like a pair of 6s, you’d like your kicker to be higher than the door card of the person who completed the bet.

If you play a small or medium pair on third street and are against a single opponent, you’ll usually call a bet on fourth street as well. Of course, you’d most likely want to fold if your opponent pairs his door card.

The tougher decision is likely to come on fifth street. This is where the bet sizes double. If you call on fifth, you’re pretty much committing yourself to calling the rest of the way. When deciding whether or not to call on fifth street, you need to look at the cards your opponent has caught on the previous two streets. If he started with a Queen up and caught two cards that are higher than your pair – say a Jack and a 10 – you should fold to a bet. Even if your small pair is best at this point, your hand is very vulnerable; you’ll win a showdown only about 50 percent of the time. And if your opponent does hold a higher pair, you’re in serious trouble. But if he catches rags and your cards remain live, then you’ll want to play the hand to showdown and hope your pair holds.

There’s no question that small and medium pairs are among the most challenging hands in Seven-Card Stud. But if you look carefully at your situation on third street and consider the previous action, the size of your kicker and how live your cards are, you’re more likely to play the hand well.

Perry Friedman

AceKing2Two sites we all rate and recommend however are UK’s bet365 Poker (top site on the iPoker network – Europe’s busiest and best) and Bookmaker Poker, a savvy Costa Rica based poker room on the WPN Network that offers US-based players excellent tournament opportunities.

 

Playing more hands to increase your stack

Erick Lindgren kindly shares some pearls of poker wisdom…

In tournaments, I play lots of hands. I’ll put my money in with all kinds of connected cards, especially when in position. I might limp, I might min-raise or raise a little more than the minimum, depending on the circumstances. I’m looking to keep my table off balance so they don’t know where I’m coming from.

My overall goal is to pick up a lot of small pots without a lot of resistance. I might raise in position and hope for a call from one of the blinds. If I raise pre-flop with something like 6-7, I might miss the flop entirely, but the raise puts me in control of the hand. On the flop, I’ll likely bet if checked to, even if I miss. That small bet on the flop will usually win me a small, but helpful pot.

Of course, sometimes it won’t work out. I’ll bet and get check-raised on occasions. But that’s okay, because I actually don’t lose much in the hands that I have to surrender. Overall, I get to gradually add to my chip stack by chopping at small pot after small pot.

The other major advantage to my style is that, occasionally, I will hit a flop hard. If I do happen to flop a straight, it’s difficult for other players to put me on something like 5-7 or 6-8. If one of my opponents also gets a piece of the flop, I’ll get paid off in a big way.

By adding to my stack early, I have a real advantage over players who play a cautious, tight game. The extra chips that I accumulate allow me to survive some tough spots. So, if I happen to get involved in a race with A-K or a pair of Tens, I can withstand a loss. An opponent who’s playing tight will likely be on the rail after losing a single race.

New players often ask me how they can learn to play more pots. I always suggest that they drop down significantly in stakes and practice. If you’re playing $2-$4 no-limit, drop down to $.50-$1 – a level where some losses won’t hurt you.

Once you’re at that table, try to play eight hands out of 10. Play everything but 2-8 or 3-9 – hands that are entirely unconnected. When you get yourself involved with this kind of frequency, you’ll have to concentrate more on your opponents than on your own cards. You’ll have to be on the lookout for opportunities to take down pots with well-timed stabs. You’ll also learn how to proceed in situations where you flop a good, but dangerous hand.

By dropping down and playing a lot of hands, you’re going to learn a lot about poker. You’re also going to have a lot of fun. In my opinion, playing 50% of the hands is a whole lot more entertaining than sitting around waiting for Aces.

If you look at the success that Gavin Smith, Daniel Negreanu and myself have had over the last couple of years, you’ll see that being active can be an excellent way to score big in tournaments. It takes practice to play this style, but it can lead to great results and be a lot of fun.

Erick

 

tickyThere’s lots of choice when it comes to poker networks including the iPoker Network, Microgaming Poker, Chico Poker and WPN Poker Networks. Check out the latest poker room reviews or the online poker room showdown before you decide where to play your next hand of poker.