Poker Pro: Make that Bet Size Work for You!

Greg Raymer aka Fossilman

Frequently tournament players bet an improper amount and often make the mistake of giving their opponents the correct odds to draw out on them. (In online poker, that’s about the time you get the banter in the chat box about calling with bottom pair…)

When was the last time you witnessed a bet of $300 into a pot of $2,000? I’d think your opponent was hoping to get action with his top pair, but as a seasoned poker player you know he’s making a big mistake. Even with bottom pair, your opponent is being given the right price to draw with five outs. If there’s a straight or a flush possibility, the bet size is way too low to expect a fold from anybody with one of those draws. You want to bet an amount that makes it a mistake for your opponent to call.

I also see inappropriate bets like $3,000 into a $600 pot. By making such a drastic overbet, this player is just guaranteeing that he will not get paid off by a worse hand, but instead get a call by a hand that is beating him. I often see this mistake from players who foolishly limp in with pocket aces. After they receive three or four callers and no one gives them the chance to re-raise pre-flop, they bet huge post-flop thinking “I need to get rid of my opponents now and win the pot before something bad happens”. Unfortunately, something bad has already happened. In this multi-way pot pocket aces aren’t much of a favourite, and after their opponent re-raises they’ll make the mathematically correct all-in call, yet often be behind.

Here’s an example – think what you would bet in this situation:

It’s the first level of a tournament and everyone has $10,000. You raise with KsQs to $300. One opponent makes the call from the button while both blinds fold. With a total of $675 in the pot, the flop comes Qd10s3s. How much would you bet?

Poker tipsTop pair with a good kicker and a flush draw – not a bad flop. I recommend that players bet a fixed percentage of the pot every time they bet. Players ought to have a fixed percentage because too many players tend to have one pattern or another based on the strength of their hand. That % needs to remain consistent to ensure you don’t give anything away based on the size of your bet. Being consistent is the only way to protect yourself in the long run. I’d bet $600.

Betting the pot or close to it is the correct amount to bet. However, if the correct bet is more than a third of either your stack or your opponent’s stack, perhaps going all-in is  better.

Early in a tournament if I flop a pair and flush draw and know that this pot might get very big, I’ll size my initial bet or raise so that I can make the last all-in push. If my opponent has A-Q, it’s a virtual coin flip; and rather than flipping a coin for all the chips, I’d rather get him to fold by re-raising. If he has a set, we aren’t going to get him to fold no matter what we do, but there are plenty of hands like A-Q or K-K where putting enough pressure on our opponents might persuade them to fold. Remember that if our opponent has a hand with which he is really willing to get all his chips in the pot, then he is the favourite in this case. But the majority of the time, our constant pressure will do the trick.

Using this example above, let’s try to incorporate the method I mentioned. There is $675 in the pot, and normally you might bet between $550 and $650, which is a good bet size right now. If your opponent re-raises to $1,500, instead of your normal re-raise to $4,500, you’d push all your chips into the pot (as $4,500 is almost half of your chips anyway). That doesn’t tell him what kind of hand you have, but if I’m you opponent and have A-Q, I’m not going to be happy. At this time I’d rationalize that my opponent should have one pair beat or is holding a big draw. If I’m either a small favourite or way behind, why would I want to call all my chips?

Adjusting the pot size in the example, imagine if there were $2,000 in the pot pre-flop. Remember that we’re trying to be the ones who make the last bet, so our typical $1,800 bet would not work in this case. If we made that bet, our opponents would probably re-raise all –in and we’d be stuck calling since we have too much equity to correctly fold.

Given that this is the case, you might want to make a smaller bet to keep with our goal of making the final push. An unusually small bet, like $500 or $1000, would be ideal since when they re-raise $2000 to $3000 you can push all-in.

In this scenario, you’re giving your opponent a chance to fold a hand like A-Q again. Even holding pocket aces, your opponent might contemplate a fold since the betting has told the story that you might have flopped a set. Your opponent will realize that you will have a strong made hand or a strong draw. He might call, but he isn’t correct to do so.

professional poker tipsIf you’re a solid player, your opponent is in a tough spot and this is the way good solid players will mix it up. They’ll force the action and jam the pot with strong draws in addition to strong made hands. Even if they get called by a strong hand, they’re in good shape, with lots of outs, to win the pot.

a5_wFor other poker tips from professional players check out the pro tips directory at PokerLabRat.com
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