The Poker Lab Rat

OK, it’s time for some tough love – I can’t keep teaching you winning poker unless you grasp the ugly truth that governs every bet. Here’s what I’m on about: Every time you make a wager against an opponent, the net outcome for both players is negative. That’s true in poker and other forms of gambling that pit player against player.

Why? Read on…
First, a related topic. Money you don’t lose is just as important as money you win. I’m guessing you immediately agree with this statement. Money is money you reason. But in the heat of poker combat, hardly anyone grasps the significance. Night after night I see players get behind and begin to break down emotionally. When the original buy-in was $500 and they find themselves losing $4,450, they stop caring about whether they end up cashing out $4,300 behind or $4,600 behind. It feels the same. Same emotional result, same agony.

All that matters for most players at that moment is getting even – or at least recovering to a point where the pain is diminished. Common sense strategy collapses. But you should play poker with exactly the same critical decision making, whether you’re winning big, about even or buried. It matters equally in every case and here’s proof…

Rewriting Poker History
Suppose you’re fairly new to poker and decide you’ve acquired enough skills to play professionally. You test yourself for a year, but things don’t o as you’d hoped. Your adventure has seen you lose $200,000. OK- here’s where I pop up and say “I can re-write poker history and make you even for the year”.

You seemed stunned and unconvinced, but I explain that I’m the god of poker (which is of course actually true!). So you listen as I continue… “There’s only one thing I nee from you. Would you rather I rewrite poker history by adding a little extra to each win you had last year, so you break even? Or would you prefer I subtract a little from each loss, so you break even?  You blurt “Either way - what difference does it make?”

Now – here’s the point. It doesn’t matter – the year end result is the same. So that’s why you need to understand, not just intellectually but emotionally, that money you don’t lose is exactly the same as money you win. And you need to start playing accordingly.

Frightening Concept
Fine. But today we’re going to examine a frightening concept that says that money you don’t lose is actually more important than money you win. In order to understand this you need to imagine that you were offered a coin flip bet by a friend. Each of you had a $1m bankroll, a substantial sum gathered over 20 years of dedicated poker play and representing your entire worldly worth. Your friend Paul says “Let’s flip a coin for $900,000”.

Suppose that, on impulse you accept this wager. Since there’s no expertise involved in the coin flip, you correctly reason that the outcome is fifty-fifty and both players, you and Paul, are equally skilled. You might also think that this is what mathematicicans would call a “zero-sum” game (ie every dollar lost is equally balanced by a dollar won, so there is no net win or loss) – but I believe there is a net loss!

In order to see this net loss you must look beyond the dollars exchanged. You must ask yourself what the effect of the wager will be. If you lose the coin flip, you’ll have only $100,000 and Paul will have $1,900,000. Your future will have been brutalized. Paul’s future though will have been enhanced nicely, but not overwhelmingly. The point is that in the real world, any wagers among equally skilled opponents invariably cause net harm.

Significant Edge
Although it’s occasionally OK to hone your skills against tough opponents, this is a costly endeavour – even if you have a small advantage. Remember, rakes, table rent, dealer tips, travel, expenses and other costs will factor against you. You’ll also be wasting time that you could use more profitably. Progressive income taxes also mean that money won never equates to money lost. You simply don’t want to wager unless you have a significant edge.

Think about it and you’ll see why halving one bankroll to make another fifty percent larger is a bad amble for everybody. That’s one reason why you nee to seek the best games with the biggest edges if you want to succeed at poker.

Mike Caro

Play poker with the ‘mad genius’ at DoylesRoom.com. This top rated online poker site has recently upgraded to the Microgaming Poker room and is now one of the fastest growing poker sites on the net. Check it out! (Sorry, no US Players)